How Much Displacement Will Be Caused by the Sullivan Courthouse Redevelopment?

The Sullivan Courthouse revitalization project is somewhat unique among major building projects in Cambridge. First and foremost, the project stands apart because the building itself already exists. The Courthouse project is not an upzoning like so many larger projects in the area, but a utilization of a preexisting, nonconforming structure.

The redevelopment of the Courthouse will bring about a host of financial benefits, as well the rapid remediation of potential safety hazards in the East Cambridge neighborhood, but there are potential negative consequences to any development that deserve to be scrutinized fully.

First and foremost on the minds of Courthouse supporters and critics alike is the issue of displacement.

Displacement’s mechanism is simple to understand: new offices attract new workers, some of whom are going to want to find housing in Cambridge. Since we already have a housing crisis, we have a responsibility to ask where these new workers are going to live.

So let’s explore the numbers.

We can draw on figures from 2015’s Cambridge Incentive Zoning Ordinance Nexus Study to model new housing demand. On average, new office construction generates approximately one job for every 350 square feet of new office space. Based previous observations, approximately 13.3% of workers in new office buildings will demand housing in Cambridge. Approximately 54% of those workers will qualify for affordable housing falling at or below the 120% AMI threshold. 46% will demand market housing.

With its approximately 430,000 square feet of new office space, the Courthouse project will generate demand for about 1200–1250 new workers. About 160 of those workers will want to live in Cambridge, and 85 of those will qualify for affordable housing.

Should the project move forward as currently proposed, the Courthouse developer has promised $11.5m to Cambridge’s Affordable Housing Trust. The trust commonly contributes financing to enable affordable new affordable units at a rate of about $200k per unit, so the developer’s commitment enables about 58 new affordable units in Cambridge. Additionally, the developer has promised 24 affordable units on Courthouse site. In total, the city could end up with 82 new affordable units, virtually equal to the projected demand of 85. Additionally, the city can expect new revenue of around $5.6m annually from new taxes and increased garage revenue, or enough for the Affordable Housing Trust to enable dozens of additional units each year if the city chose to earmark some of the new revenue for the purpose. (It should!)

It is still true that 75 Courthouse workers will demand market housing in Cambridge. While this will introduce an additional pressure on the market, 75 units is equal to just .14% of Cambridge’s total number of dwellings, so that pressure could be fairly described as “small”. For further comparison, East Cambridge and MIT/Area 2 currently have 985 new residential units in the works in upcoming projects with issued building permits.

But how significant is the Courthouse redevelopment compared other approved projects in the area? Well, according to the city’s Current Development Log, 4,139,030 total square feet of new office space are either permitted or under construction in East Cambridge and MIT/Area 2. Volpe adds another 1.7 million square feet of commercial development (some retail, but mostly new office). That’s around 5,839,030 square feet of new commercial space that is mostly new office space.

The proposed 430,000 square feet of new Courthouse office space amounts to just 7% of that total. Most of the other redevelopment projects in the area were proposed or approved after the Courthouse plan was permitted in 2014. Decision makers had full knowledge of the Courthouse’s office plans when they approved Volpe and other projects that have come since. Displacement risks should always be addressed, but it would seem odd to now hold the Courthouse proposal up for and special scrutiny over displacement when it is just a drop in the bucket of approved new development and it was approved before most other projects currently in progress, many of which sailed through the Council.

And, critically, the Courthouse is redevelopment, not upzoning, and not new development. It’s there, it’s legal, it’s not going away, and we have to deal with it soon. The other 93% of new commercial space approved in the area do nothing to fix the unique problems or alleviate the unique safety concerns associated with the Courthouse. Volpe won’t get rid of the eyesore. Cambridge Crossing won’t reactivate Thorndike and Third. The Galleria won’t remediate the asbestos.

The Courthouse proposal solves problems beyond the question of “what could we build here?” It solves them quickly and efficiently. The proposal almost entirely mitigates its own impacts on affordable housing in the city, and could be leveraged to help much more at the city’s discretion. It makes a negligible impact of the broader housing market, especially compared to projects approved since 2014. It provides millions in other revenues and values that can be turned toward other civic priorities.

The plan’s benefits outweigh its costs, and the proposal deserves consideration.